Scientists with the US Geological Survey (USGS) are studying sea-surface temperatures that existed during the mid-Pliocene era and believe this period was too warm to support sea ice during the summer season. Researchers believe temperatures during the period were about 10 to 18°C (50 to 64°F) in the summer. Current temperatures found are around or below 0°C (32°F).
Based on these trends, it is likely that the Arctic could see ice free summers in its near future. There is increased evidence that the Arctic could face seasonally ice-free conditions and much warmer temperatures in the future. Scientists feel that past experience with summer temperatures during the Pliocene offer hints of surface ice conditions to come in the North.
US Geological Survey Scientist Marci Robinson says of the heat patterns, “In looking back 3 million years, we see a very different pattern of heat distribution than today with much warmer waters in the high latitudes. The lack of summer sea ice during the mid-Pliocene suggests that the record-setting melting of Arctic sea ice over the past few years could be an early warning of more significant changes to come.”
Ms. Robinson’s article titled New quantitative evidence of extreme warmth in the Pliocene Arctic was published in Stratigraphy, a journal concerned with research within the stratigraphic disciplines. Stratigraphy is a science field interested in the study of sedimentary and layered volcanic rock formations.
The USGS continues to explore this trend and believes the past geologic record can serve as an analog for predicting the climate of the future. This research certainly helps explain the current rate of Arctic sea-ice reduction.
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